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Research Article

Housing Market Segmentation and Spatio-temporal Change based on Housing Demand: Housing Demand Markets of Seoul

주택 수요에 기반한 주택 시장 세분화 및 시공간적 변동성에 관한 연구: 서울시 주택 수요 시장을 대상으로

문소현1, 이건학2†

Sohyun Mun1, Gunhak Lee2†

1서울대학교 지리학과 박사과정
2서울대학교 지리학과 교수 및 국토문제연구소 겸무연구원
1Ph.D Student, Department of Geography, Seoul National University
2Professor, Department of Geography and Institute for Korean Regional Studies, Seoul National University
30 April 2025. pp. 85~96
PDF Citation
Abstract
The housing market can be segmented to several submarkets due to imbalance between housing supply and demand, and spatial influences in the housing market are important because housing submarkets are partitioned in consideration of not only the characteristics of the structure of house but also the surrounding environment such as neighborhoods. Although the submarket can be delineated based on various criteria, such as housing attributes or house price, districting submarkets from housing demand has substantial advantages for the policy establishment. Also, it enables to increase the effectiveness of policies. This study estimates the future housing demand by considering spatial influences in the housing market of Seoul, and examines how the future demand market will change by segmenting housing submarkets spatially based on housing demand. The analysis results indicate that Seoul’s demand-based housing markets in future can be divided into ten submarkets. Such submarkets could be spatially changed in the short-term, but they will be stable in the long run. It is worth noting that our approach successfully segmented the housing market of Seoul based on the future demand rather than the house price. Moreover, this research contributes to provide an insight into how the spatial patterns of the submarket would be changed over time, and could be utilized for establishing the main direction of housing policies.
Keywords
Housing demand
Housing submarket
Market segmentation
K-means clustering
Jaccard similarity Index
주택 시장은 수요와 공급의 불균형으로 인해 여러 개의 하위 시장으로 구분되며, 하위 시장은 주택의 특성 뿐만 아니라 근린과 같은 주변 환경을 총체적으로 고려하여 구획화되므로 공간적 영향력이 중요하다. 주택 시장을 구획화하는 기준은 주택의 특성, 가격 등 다양하나, 주택 수요를 기반으로 구획화할 경우 주택 정책을 수립하는데 활용할 수 있으며, 정책의 효율성을 증대시킬 수 있다는 점에서 큰 장점이 있다. 본 연구에서는 서울의 주택 시장을 대상으로 공간적 영향력을 고려한 장래 주택 수요를 추정하고, 수요에 기반하여 주택 시장을 공간적으로 세분화함으로써 국지적 주택 수요 시장을 새롭게 정의하고, 장래의 수요 시장이 어떻게 변화할지를 살펴본다. 분석 결과, 서울의 장래 수요 기반 주택 시장은 총 10개로 구분될 수 있으며, 단기적으로는 공간적 변화가 있을 것으로 보이지만, 장기적으로는 안정적인 하위 시장을 형성할 것으로 전망된다. 본 연구는 서울의 주택 시장을 가격이 아닌 수요의 관점에서 세분화를 시도하였다는 점에서 의의가 있으며, 하위 시장의 공간적 패턴이 장래에 어떻게 변화할지에 대한 유의미한 전망을 제공함으로써 향후 주택 정책 방향 수립에 중요한 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.
키워드
주택 수요
주택 하위 시장
시장 세분화
K-평균 클러스터링
Jaccard 유사성 지수
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Cartographic Association
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지도학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Cartographic Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국지도학회지
  • Volume : 25
  • No :1
  • Pages :85~96
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.16879/jkca.2025.25.1.085
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