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2023 Vol.23, Issue 1

Research Article

Exploring Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Impact of Migration on Population Redistribution: A Case Study of Internal Migration in South Korea

인구이동이 인구재분포에 미치는 영향력의 시공간적 역동성 탐색: 우리나라 국내 인구이동에의 적용

이상일1, 이소영2†

Sang-Il Lee1, Soyoung Lee2†

1서울대학교 사범대학 지리교육과 교수
2서울대학교 교육종합연구원 선임연구원
1Professor, Department of Geography Education, College of Education, Seoul National University
2Senior Researcher, Center for Education Research, Seoul National University
30 April 2023. pp. 1-19
PDF Citation
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to solidify the methodological foundation for analyzing the impact of migration on population redistribution and to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of migration unidirectionality or imbalance by applying it to Korean internal migration data. In terms of methodology, migration effectiveness index (MEI) was judged to be a more appropriate measure compared to net migration rate (NMR). It was evaluated that MEI is a more conceptually correct measure compared to NMR, is relatively free from the ‘small population problem’, and is relatively advantageous in grasping the current spatiotemporal dynamics of population movement. In addition, MEI has superior scale scalability compared to NMR, which is found to be much more advantageous in establishing a research framework considering multiple scales. An analysis framework based on MEI was applied to data from the last 25 years (1998-2022) in Korea and analyzed. The results of the study are summarized as follows. First, as a result of the global scale analysis, the global MEI value has tended to fluctuate within about 5-10% over the past 25 years, showing a specific time series pattern. Second, the regional scale analysis has proven that MEI is a more appropriate tool for identifying the dynamics of current migration compared to NMR. Third, the region-specific scale analysis revealed a very unique pattern of population exchange by special and metropolitan cities, and proved that MEI is superior to NMR in terms of scale scalability. Fourth, as a result of the inter-regional scale analysis, some flows with marked unidirectionality were identified. The research framework presented in this study can be extended in various directions, including group disaggregated research, application of multivariate techniques, and research on smaller spatial units.
Keywords
Migration effectiveness
Population redistribution
Spatial scale
Net migration rate
Scalability
본 논문의 주된 연구목적은 인구이동이 인구재분포에 미치는 영향력을 분석하기 위한 방법론적 토대를 공고히 하고, 그것을 바탕으로 우리나라 인구이동의 편향성 혹은 불균형성의 시공간적 역동성을 탐색하는 것이다. 방법론적인 측면에서, 인구이동 유효도 지수(MEI)가 순이동률(NMR)에 비해 보다 적절한 측도인 것으로 판단되었다. MEI는 NMR에 비해 측도로서의 타당도가 높으며, ‘소인구문제’로부터 상대적으로 자유롭고, 인구이동의 현재적 역동성을 파악하는데 상대적으로 유리한 것으로 평가되었다. 덧붙여 MEI는 NMR에 비해 스케일 확장성이 월등해 다중 스케일을 고려한 연구 프레임워크의 수립에 훨씬 유리한 것으로 판단되었다. MEI에 기반한 분석 프레임워크를 우리나라의 최근 25년간(1998~2022년)의 데이터에 적용하여 분석하였다. 연구 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 전역 스케일의 분석 결과, 지난 25년간 전역적 MEI 값이 대략 5~10% 안에서 변동하는 경향을 보였으며, 특정한 시계열적 패턴을 보여주었다. 둘째, 지역별 스케일 분석의 결과, MEI가 NMR에 비해 인구이동의 역동성을 파악하는데 더 적절한 도구라는 사실이 입증되었다. 셋째, 지역-특수적 스케일 분석의 결과, 특별･광역시별로 매우 독특한 인구 교환 양상의 패턴이 드러났으며, 스케일 확장성이라는 측면에서 MEI는 NMR에 비해 월등하다는 사실이 입증되었다. 넷째, 지역간 스케일의 분석 결과, 인구이동 편향성이 두드러진 플로들이 확인되었다. 본 연구에서 제시된 연구 프레임워크는 다양한 방향으로 확장될 수 있는데, 집단 개별화 연구, 다변량 기법의 적용, 보다 작은 공간단위의 연구 등이다.
키워드
인구이동 유효도
인구 재분포
공간적 스케일
순이동률
스케일 확장성
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  • Publisher :The Korean Cartographic Association
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지도학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Cartographic Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국지도학회지
  • Volume : 23
  • No :1
  • Pages :1-19
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