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2021 Vol.21, Issue 3 Preview Page

Research Article

A Comparative Analysis of GWR and MGWR on the COVID-19 Diffusion in Seoul, South Korea

코로나-19 확산에 대한 GWR과 MGWR의 비교분석: 서울시를 배경으로

홍석찬1, 양병윤2†

Sukchan Hong1, Byungyun Yang2†

1동국대학교 일반대학원 지리학과 석사과정
2동국대학교 지리교육과 부교수
1Master Student, Department of Geography, Dongguk University
2Associate Professor, Department of Geography Education, Dongguk University
31 December 2021. pp. 77-91
PDF Citation
Abstract
This study aims to compare Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model with Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model by utilizing the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and factors influencing them. First, this study investigated factors that mainly affect the increase of COVID-19 confirmed cases. Next, Ordinary Least Square, Variation Inflation Factor, and Local Moran’s I were applied to explore the linear relationship and local spatial autocorrelation between COVID-19 confirmed cases and the major factors. In particular, this study compared results of the GWR model with the most recently proposed MGWR model. Regarding bandwidth, the MGWR model uses different spatial scales which are determined by mitigating the local collinearity issues found in a standard GWR and narrowing the range of values. As a result, MGWR is more stable than GWR. Consequently, we expect the study can contribute to the EISS for infectious diseases that require quarantine, prevention, and prediction.
Keywords
COVID-19
Spatial Analysis
Determinants
GWR
MGWR
EISS
본 연구는 코로나-19 확진자 수와 이에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 활용하여 지리가중회귀(Geographically Weighted Regression, GWR)모델과 다중스케일 지리가중회귀(Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression, MGWR)모델을 비교 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 가장 먼저 선행 연구조사를 통해 코로나-19 확진자 수에 커다란 영향을 미치는 요인들을 선별하였다. 다음으로 최소제곱법(Ordinary Least Square, OLS), 분산팽창계수(Variation Inflation Factor, VIF)및 Local Moran’s I를 사용하여 코로나-19 확진자 수와의 선형 및 국지적 공간자기상관관계를 탐색하였다. 특히 종전에 널리 사용되어왔던 GWR모델과 최근 새롭게 등장한 MGWR모델을 비교 분석하여 본 연구에 가장 적합한 지리가중회귀 모델을 결정하였다. MGWR은 변수 특성을 감안한 조정된 밴드대역폭을 사용하여 보다 정밀하게 변수들 간의 공간관계를 설명할 수 있다. 본 연구를 통해 얻은 결과물은 감염병 예방 및 예측에 필요로 하는 감염병역학조사지원시스템에 도움을 줄 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.
키워드
코로나-19
공간분석
결정요인
지리가중회귀
다중스케일 지리가중회귀
감염병역학조사지원시스템
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Cartographic Association
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지도학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Cartographic Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국지도학회지
  • Volume : 21
  • No :3
  • Pages :77-91
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.16879/jkca.2021.21.3.077
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