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Research Article

Analyzing Changes in Suburban Decline in the Seoul Metropolitan Area: Focusing on Population-Housing Double Aging

수도권 교외지역 쇠퇴의 변화 분석: 인구·주택 이중노후화를 중심으로

홍유진1 · 신정엽2†

Youjin Hong1 · Jungyeop Shin2†

1서울대학교 지리교육과 강사
2서울대학교 지리교육과 교수
1Instructor, Department of Geography Education, Seoul National University
2Professor, Department of Geography Education, Seoul National University
31 December 2025. pp. 63~76
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Abstract
This study empirically examines suburban decline by analyzing “double ageing,” a condition in which both population ageing and housing ageing progress simultaneously, at a 1 km grid scale. The Double Ageing Index (DAI) was constructed by combining the Z-standardized compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the elderly population ratio and the Z-standardized change in average housing age between 2000 and 2020. Using the DAI, the study first identified grids exhibiting double ageing and then examined their population and housing characteristics. In addition, Getis-Ord' G* statistics and ring(distance)–direction(sector) analyses were applied to capture spatial clustering patterns and directional diffusion of double ageing. The results indicate that double ageing is concentrated in the inner suburban belt within 20km of Seoul’s administrative boundary, and is particularly associated with large-scale apartment complexes supplied in the 1990s. This suggests that these areas have undergone rapid double ageing due to structural similarities in housing development periods and household composition. By contrast, outer low-density areas show relatively low DAI values, despite high absolute levels of ageing, because their rates of change remain modest. Through fine-scale, grid-based spatial analysis, this study provides empirical evidence of suburban decline grounded in double ageing and highlights the need for a paradigm shift in suburban policy frameworks.
Keywords
Suburbanization
Suburban decline
Inner-ring suburbs
Double ageing index
Urban structure
본 연구는 교외지역 쇠퇴 현상을 실증적으로 규명하기 위하여 인구 고령화와 주택 노후화가 동시에 진행되는 ‘이중노후(double ageing)’를 1km 격자 단위에서 분석하였다. 2000-2020년 동안 노인인구 비율 증가율과 평균주택연령 변화량을 Z-표준화하여 결합한 이중노후지수(DAI)를 바탕으로, 이중노후가 나타나는 격자들에 대해 인구 및 주택 특성을 검토하였다. 또, Getis-Ord' G*, 거리(고리)·방위(섹터) 분석을 적용해 공간적 집적성과 확산 경향을 확인하였다. 분석 결과, 이중노후는 서울 경계 20km 이내의 내부 교외지역에 집중되었으며, 특히 1990년대 대규모 아파트 공급지와 연계되는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 해당 지역들이 동일 시기에 형성된 주택과 세대구성의 구조적 유사성 때문에 인구·주택의 이중노후화가 급격히 나타났음을 보여준다. 반면 외곽 저밀도 지역은 절대적 노후 수준이 높음에도 변화율이 낮아 이중노후지수는 작게 나타났다. 본 연구는 격자 기반 미세공간 분석을 통해 교외지역의 이중노후화에 토대한 쇠퇴 양상을 실증적으로 규명하였으며, 향후 교외지역 정책 패러다임의 전환이 이루어져야 함을 제시하였다는 의의를 가진다.
키워드
교외화
교외지역 쇠퇴
내부 교외지역
이중노후지수
도시구조
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Cartographic Association
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지도학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Cartographic Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국지도학회지
  • Volume : 25
  • No :3
  • Pages :63~76
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.16879/jkca.2025.25.3.063
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